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The Rarest Item in TF2 🔎🔍

🎞️ · 16.11.2022 · 22:49:36 ··· MiTTwoch ⭐ 0 🎬 0 📺Zesty Jesus
🎬 · 16.11.2022 · 22:49:36 ··· MiTTwoch
😎 · 03.07.2024 · 15:40:29 ··· MiTTwoch
Source information and caveats below!
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/Zesty_Jesus
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/zesty_jesus
Discord (first 5 only): https://discord.gg/V3PpfyS8

2nd Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC994tfHvazuy8nSY89LPpYA

Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/zesty_jesus
My TF2 Server: https://zestyjesus.com/

Thumbnai Bnnuy by JauntyWeb:
https://twitter.com/JauntywebAU

Music:
Stardust Speedway Zone Act 1 - Sonic Mania [OST]
[Blue Archive] Mitsukiyo - Mischievous Step
[Blue Archive] Mitsukiyo - Lemonade Diary
Pink Guy - Fried Noodles [DVNZXL Remix]

_Sources and Caveats_
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Certain types of items were omitted from consideration, specifically glitched items, promotional items, and gifts from Valve. Quantifying the statistical probability of occurrence for these items is not possible, for obvious reasons (i.e. a gift is a gift).

Australium Drop Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dJWmNnptCy3BZClNi4JQHDPloRZPt4nXhGj-wJu6CBg/pubhtml

Article on TF2's unusual drop rate:
http://tf2finance.com/rate/

Item Counts, Item Grade Abundance, Stat-Clock Abundance:
TF2tools.net

TF2 Skin Sticker and Pattern Information:
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=591979753

CSGO's case odds:
https://www.pcgamesn.com/counter-strike-global-offensive/csgo-case-odds
https://www.csgo.com.cn/news/gamebroad/20170911/206155.shtml

By law, Chinese companies must publicly display the results of all lottery results (including case openings):
https://www.csgo.com.cn/hd/1707/lotteryrecords/index.html

Given the abysmal state of item servers, previous versions of the TF2tools webpages were accessed via the Wayback machine:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160604151026/http://www.tf2tools.net/articles/skins

Item grade abundances change with the gradual increase in the number of trade-ups performed. As time goes on, lower grade items are exchanged for higher grade items (hence elite grades going from 0.8% to 1% over the course of about a year, reflecting item consumption and generation, not a change in case odds).

Wear abundance changes are negligible over the lifespan of TF2 skins, unimpacted by trade-ups given the differing nature from CSGO trade-ups.

Note again that the odds shown in the Steam guide are not official, and appear to be largely derived from guesswork or first-order estimates.

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· 16.11.2022 · 22:49:36 ··· MiTTwoch
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L · 29.09.2024 · 02:59:19 ···
C · 30.12.2024 · 16:12:42 ···
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