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yt:channelId>5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>DoubleLine Capital/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
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published>2016-08-15T19:52:10+00:00/published>
entry>
id>yt:video:-nipeGsr6qY/id>
yt:videoId>-nipeGsr6qY/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Disinflation? Reflation? Bonds for Both./title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nipeGsr6qY"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-04-18T18:51:15+00:00/published>
updated>2024-04-20T04:30:44+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Disinflation? Reflation? Bonds for Both./media:title>
media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/v/-nipeGsr6qY?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="390"/>
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media:description>In this April 16, 2024, webcast titled "Disinflation? Reflation? Bonds for Both," Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman provides valuable insights into the economic trends impacting the fixed income market. Mr. Sherman begins by examining macroeconomic conditions, highlighting global growth stories and emphasizing the pivotal role played by the U.S. economy. The discussion then shifts to the effects of economic data surprises on growth and the impact of cumulative inflation on consumer sentiment.
Throughout the webcast, Jeffrey Sherman explores the challenges posed by inflation and its influence on consumer outlooks within financial conditions. He delves into the factors driving bond market volatility, including the dynamics of inflation influenced by import and export prices. Labor market trends are also discussed, with a particular focus on the concerns arising from slowing wage growth above historical norms and its contribution to rising inflation worries across sectors.
Mr. Sherman provides insights into market performances, discussing winners and losers influenced by interest rate fluctuations. He emphasizes the importance of analyzing risk-reward profiles for effective navigation of different market segments.
Jeffrey offers valuable insights into economic trends, inflation, and fixed income investments, providing a comprehensive understanding of the current market landscape.
00:00: Considering multiple outcomes in the current market environment.
02:03: Analysis of GDP growth rate exceeding trend expectations.
05:07: Emphasis on the importance of the U.S. economy in driving global growth.
09:12: Discussion on the shift in PMI data for manufacturing indicating growth.
15:27: Insights into CPI data challenges faced by Jay Powell and the Fed.
19:57: Evaluation of current inflation levels and projections for the year.
22:52: Examination of job openings and average hourly earnings trends.
26:24: Analysis of the labor market situation compared to previous years.
30:10: Discussion on the impact of the pandemic on the labor market dynamics.
34:15: Concerns regarding the impact of stimulus on FICO scores.
40:44: Overview of market conditions and bond market volatility.
45:24: Evaluation of breakeven rates and bond market projections.
48:38: Importance of analyzing credit spreads and treasury markets.
50:31: Comparison of current spreads to historical trends in the marketplace.
51:01: Building blocks of risk premium and strategic considerations at DoubleLine
Follow Doubleline on X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap
Subscribe on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/doubleline-capital
Website: https://doubleline.com//media:description>
media:community>
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entry>
id>yt:video:q7XvNM6Hxsg/id>
yt:videoId>q7XvNM6Hxsg/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Channel 11: The Land of Gains/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7XvNM6Hxsg"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-04-12T17:04:17+00:00/published>
updated>2024-04-15T17:20:54+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Channel 11: The Land of Gains/media:title>
media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/v/q7XvNM6Hxsg?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="390"/>
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media:description>Ken Shinoda, Portfolio Manager at DoubleLine Capital and Chairman of the firmâs Structured Products Committee, covers the gains across equity, fixed income and commodity markets in March, subsequent pricing action and a noteworthy improvement in certain leading macro indicators, including Manufacturing PMI. As a result, Mr. Shinoda notes, âU.S. economists are forecasting stronger economic growth than they did about a year ago for the year 2024. And this is again all why equities have moved higher.â
Among other topics treated in this episode of Channel 11, recorded April 9, 2024, Mr. Shinoda discusses:
(2:31) The outlook on inflation, including the roll-off of positive base effects that had contributed to lower year-over-year inflation readings, potentially resulting in more stubborn inflation levels in the future, contributing to higher interest rates for longer.
(3:42) A rollover in housing rents, on the back of a âton of new multi-family supply hitting the market,â a factor that should help ease pressure on headline and core inflation.
(4:23) Signs of lower wage and labor pressures, including a falling quits rate and reduced small-business hiring, perhaps presaging lower price pressures in the services sector of the economy. Mr. Shinoda also warns that these signs of weakness should give a moment of pause to people who are pricing in a âno landingâ scenario for the economy.
(7:22) Recovering consumer sentiment.
(7:50) Among downside risks, the prospect of âhigher-for-longerâ borrowing rates. Higher rates already are putting the squeeze on commercial real estate; higher-for-longer could do the same to corporate borrowers, many of whom, due to the lack of bank lending, have turned to private lenders of floating-rate loans.
(9:27) Interest rates across the Treasury curve, the market pricing (as of the time of the episode recording) of future levels of the federal funds interest rate, and Mr. Shinodaâs sanguine view on the actual timing of rate cuts in 2024.
(12:45) Fixed income in March (positive across all major sectors), followed by a back-up in yields in the first part of April.
(14:01) Whatâs Cheap: DoubleLineâs report on which parts of the fixed income universe are attractive relative to others. Spread tightening, Ken Shinoda notes, which has driven big rallies in investment grade and high yield corporate bonds, and in emerging markets corporates, has been coming to securitization markets, with the exception of Agency mortgage-backed securities.
(16:40) Equity performance in March (broad gains, led by the Nikkei).
(17:49) Commodity performance (broad gains across energy, industrial metals, precious metals and agriculture). In particular, Mr. Shinoda calls out an Asia-driven surge in gold prices.
Follow Ken on X: https://twitter.com/DLineChannel11
Visit us on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/doubleline-capital
Website: https://doubleline.com//media:description>
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entry>
id>yt:video:wGOGKWv7tS4/id>
yt:videoId>wGOGKWv7tS4/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Jeffrey Gundlach on X Spaces: FOMC Reaction/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGOGKWv7tS4"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-03-21T22:10:09+00:00/published>
updated>2024-03-24T07:20:21+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Jeffrey Gundlach on X Spaces: FOMC Reaction/media:title>
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media:description>DoubleLine CEO-CIO Jeffrey Gundlach, following Fed Chair Jerome H. Powellâs press conference, shared his post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reaction with P&I Editor-in-Chief Jennifer Ablan. On Wednesday, March 20, the FOMC left interest rates unchanged but suggested the possibility of three rate cuts this year. The market had anticipated more cuts initially but has now aligned around three cuts. The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened, and stock markets surged following the announcement. Mr. Gundlach noted that since the Fedâs rhetorical pivot in November, credit-focused assets have outperformed Treasuries, with tightening spreads and shifting pricing trends across various credit ratings. This shift signals rising risks in high yield bonds and stock momentum trades.
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap | https://twitter.com/jennablan
LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/doubleline-capital
DoubleLine Capital: https://doubleline.com//media:description>
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media:starRating count="542" average="5.00" min="1" max="5"/>
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entry>
id>yt:video:tZfcYGGlL-0/id>
yt:videoId>tZfcYGGlL-0/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Ken Shinoda on Bloomberg TV: FOMC Reaction/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZfcYGGlL-0"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-03-21T19:58:38+00:00/published>
updated>2024-03-24T22:33:26+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Ken Shinoda on Bloomberg TV: FOMC Reaction/media:title>
media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/v/tZfcYGGlL-0?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="390"/>
media:thumbnail url="https://i1.ytimg.com/vi/tZfcYGGlL-0/hqdefault.jpg" width="480" height="360"/>
media:description>Ken Shinoda of DoubleLine and Mona Mahajan of Edward Jones provide insightful analysis on the Federal Open Market Committeeâs rate decision and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powellâs remarks during a recent appearance on Bloomberg TVâs âThe Close.â With the Fed contemplating rate adjustments while keeping a close eye on inflation trends, Shinoda and Mahajan foresee a prudent approach guided by economic indicators and consumer behavior.
Powellâs comments on inflation and potential rate cuts elicited a positive response from equity markets, while the bond market saw interest in steepening trades amid the Fedâs cautious stance on rate changes. Furthermore, the current recessionary pricing in commercial real estate presents an opportunity for investors, with cash investments offering attractive yields compared to long-term U.S. Treasuries.
Forecasts by the Fed indicate a gradual return of cash reserves into equities, prompting Shinoda and Mahajan to advocate for balanced-portfolio strategies. They emphasize the importance of including equities, bonds and potentially commercial real estate to diversify investment opportunities and adapt to the evolving financial landscape.
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap | https://twitter.com/DLineChannel11 | https://twitter.com/MonaMahajanView
LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/doubleline-capital
DoubleLine Capital: https://doubleline.com//media:description>
media:community>
media:starRating count="41" average="5.00" min="1" max="5"/>
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entry>
id>yt:video:nTXx5MMdphk/id>
yt:videoId>nTXx5MMdphk/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Jeffrey Gundlachâs Macro and Market Update: Cave People/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTXx5MMdphk"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-03-14T17:27:49+00:00/published>
updated>2024-04-18T18:17:26+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Jeffrey Gundlachâs Macro and Market Update: Cave People/media:title>
media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/v/nTXx5MMdphk?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="390"/>
media:thumbnail url="https://i3.ytimg.com/vi/nTXx5MMdphk/hqdefault.jpg" width="480" height="360"/>
media:description>In his webcast titled âCave Peopleâ in reference to the philosopher Platoâs âAllegory of the Cave,â DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach (0:06) on March 12, 2023, briefly reprises his outlook on the federal debt spiral before reviewing other macroeconomic and market topics, including recessionary âstorm clouds.â Notably, while the governmentâs establishment survey has resilient nonfarm payrolls, Mr. Gundlach marshals evidence showing âthe rubric that thereâs this booming employment economy is contradicted by other areas.â Among subjects addressed in the webcast, Mr. Gundlach covers:
3:54 - Federal deficit and national debt spiral
8:15 - Massive COVID-19-era monetary stimulus as explanation for the absence (to date) of recession
9:24 - Protracted inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
10:35 - Weakening consumer confidence
11:20 - U-3 unemployment rate exceeding 12-month moving average and nearing 36-month MA
12:36 - Questionable veracity of once-trustworthy economic statistics due to plunging survey response rates
15:32 - Recessionary divergence between cyclical and noncyclical employment
17:06 - Deteriorating hiring plans at small businesses
17:50 - Falling average weekly hours worked in manufacturing. âFirst they cut the hours, and then they cut the bodies.â
20:16 - Signs of stress among consumers, growing usage of credit cards and a 600-basis point rise to a âpunishingâ 23% in the average interest rate on credit card debt as forerunners of a future pullback in consumer spending
21:11 - Inflation as gauged by headline and core CPI
23:27 - Housing component of CPI versus the Zillow Rent Index and prospects of lower rents due to a construction boom in multifamily housing
25:11 - Inflation as gauged by headline and core PCE
27:47 - Inflation as gauged by export and import prices
28:18 - Commodity prices signaling weak global growth
29:09 - Review of the Treasury market and a warning regarding narrow credit spreads in high yield corporate bonds
32:58 - Year-to-date performance of the credit sectors of fixed income, including market pricing of future defaults in CCC corporate bonds
36:40 - Still-wide spreads on Agency mortgage-backed securities amid discount prices on these securities
38:01 - AAA spreads compared across non-Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), collateralized loan obligations and corporate bonds
38:31 - Attractive CMBS versus corporate bonds across AAA, A and BBB cohorts, with warnings against index investing in CMBS
39:27 - Emerging markets fixed income, which with the Federal Reserveâs Nov. 1, 2023, pivot âfinally joined the risk asset party,â although Mr. Gundlach is awaiting a weaker dollar to support the sector/media:description>
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media:starRating count="1197" average="5.00" min="1" max="5"/>
media:statistics views="35683"/>
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entry>
id>yt:video:hzCfzQtqCkY/id>
yt:videoId>hzCfzQtqCkY/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Channel 11: Good Times Bad Times/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzCfzQtqCkY"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-03-07T23:14:04+00:00/published>
updated>2024-03-15T10:41:07+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Channel 11: Good Times Bad Times/media:title>
media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/v/hzCfzQtqCkY?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="390"/>
media:thumbnail url="https://i1.ytimg.com/vi/hzCfzQtqCkY/hqdefault.jpg" width="480" height="360"/>
media:description>DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda takes a look at the state of the markets and macro issues in his recap of February in addition to the economic outlook going forward, a potentially mixed bag summed up by the title of Led Zeppelinâs 1969 song âGood Times Bad Times.â He begins with a look at fixed income and its component segments for the month and year-to-date (equities kept rolling on) (00:33). In his monthly What Looks Cheap report (2:11), Mr. Shinoda looks at Agency MBS and what it will take for the asset class to narrow the gap with corporate bonds while noting the benefits of fixed income in balancing a portfolio.
He then turns to interest rates, the outlook for cuts this year and the inflationary picture that could impact moves by the Federal Reserve (5:51). Using past cycles, Mr. Shinoda thinks some market participants got carried away on scheduling and frequency, and he believes a first cut could happen sometime this summer, âwhich I think makes sense.â After a rundown of equities (11:37), commodities (12:18) and the U.S. dollar (13:18). Mr. Shinoda concludes with a review of economist forecasts for inflation and GDP in 2024 (13:35), including a breakdown of the components of the Leading Economic Index, which has been signaling recession for a long time./media:description>
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media:starRating count="106" average="5.00" min="1" max="5"/>
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entry>
id>yt:video:IKjDq2E92jk/id>
yt:videoId>IKjDq2E92jk/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Jeffrey Gundlach Macro Insights/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKjDq2E92jk"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-02-23T17:19:40+00:00/published>
updated>2024-02-28T07:30:36+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Jeffrey Gundlach Macro Insights/media:title>
media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/v/IKjDq2E92jk?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="390"/>
media:thumbnail url="https://i2.ytimg.com/vi/IKjDq2E92jk/hqdefault.jpg" width="480" height="360"/>
media:description>In a comprehensive discussion filmed February 6, 2024, Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, addresses global economic and market challenges. He warns of rising inflation despite media downplaying, citing extensive central bank money printing and government interventions to tackle debt and income inequality. Gundlach expresses concerns about U.S. market resilience in future economic crises, linked to a weakening dollar, advocating for liquidity in downturns. He notes recession indicators like rising unemployment, declining work hours, and warns of ballooning deficits, potentially leading to interest expenses surpassing tax receipts. Gundlach predicts extreme policy responses, including radical rate cuts and increased money distribution, likely exacerbating inflation. Mr. Gundlach anticipates significant financial system changes to address income disparity and debt, advocating for Federal Reserve and debt management restructuring. Gundlach critiques government spending, discusses the dollar's future, and shares thoughts on digital currency, particularly bitcoin's supposed anonymity. Mentioning potential third-party candidates, he expresses interest in RFK Jr.'s candidacy despite disagreements. Finally, he voices fatigue with ongoing wars./media:description>
media:community>
media:starRating count="2078" average="5.00" min="1" max="5"/>
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entry>
id>yt:video:p3JfQHsQOTY/id>
yt:videoId>p3JfQHsQOTY/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Ken Shinoda on Mic'd Up! with ICM/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3JfQHsQOTY"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-02-21T15:15:06+00:00/published>
updated>2024-02-27T20:34:20+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Ken Shinoda on Mic'd Up! with ICM/media:title>
media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/v/p3JfQHsQOTY?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="390"/>
media:thumbnail url="https://i1.ytimg.com/vi/p3JfQHsQOTY/hqdefault.jpg" width="480" height="360"/>
media:description>DoubleLine's Ken Shinoda, Head of Structured products, joins Peter Seyler, Senior Investment Specialist at Integrated Capital Management, and host of Mic'd Up! with ICM to discuss the current state of fixed income markets, focusing on opportunities and risks for investors. Mr. Shinoda highlights the potential in Agency MBS and CMBS thanks to the unique environment of low rates and low prepayment risk. Ken also emphasizes the benefits of an active strategy in MBS investing such as selecting different coupons and collateral, utilizing CMOs, and adding credit risk to portfolios./media:description>
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media:starRating count="23" average="5.00" min="1" max="5"/>
media:statistics views="902"/>
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entry>
id>yt:video:3q7_ug7X1dk/id>
yt:videoId>3q7_ug7X1dk/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Trimestral de Mercados â Perspectivas para 2024/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3q7_ug7X1dk"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-02-20T22:01:49+00:00/published>
updated>2024-03-25T04:36:14+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Trimestral de Mercados â Perspectivas para 2024/media:title>
media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/v/3q7_ug7X1dk?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="390"/>
media:thumbnail url="https://i4.ytimg.com/vi/3q7_ug7X1dk/hqdefault.jpg" width="480" height="360"/>
media:description>Joel Pena, CFA, CAIA, Jefe de Latinoamérica para DoubleLine, presenta la segunda edicion español del resumen trimestral para la firma sobre la evolución de los mercados y eventos macroeconómicos mås relevantes para los inversores.
VisĂtenos en nuestro sitio web http://doubleline.com
Para informaciĂłn adicional, puede contactarnos en info@doubleline.com./media:description>
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media:starRating count="5" average="5.00" min="1" max="5"/>
media:statistics views="212"/>
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entry>
id>yt:video:sjJ-4Rqa9A4/id>
yt:videoId>sjJ-4Rqa9A4/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC's Closing Bell/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjJ-4Rqa9A4"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-02-20T21:55:59+00:00/published>
updated>2024-02-24T22:50:28+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC's Closing Bell/media:title>
media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/v/sjJ-4Rqa9A4?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="390"/>
media:thumbnail url="https://i4.ytimg.com/vi/sjJ-4Rqa9A4/hqdefault.jpg" width="480" height="360"/>
media:description>DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, with CNBC's Scott Wapner and Bob Pisani live at Exchange ETF in Miami, warns of added volatility to the economic cycle and rising interest rates post-recession thanks to the fiscal response and U.S. government debt burden. Despite the recent CPI report affecting expectations for interest rate cuts, Gundlach doubts it will sway the Fed's decisions significantly. He also highlights concerns about stock market valuations and tech company concentration risk, advocating for equal-weighted investments over passive market-weighted ones. Gundlach stresses the importance of international investing scrutiny and expresses optimism about India's economy. The conversation shifts to investment allocation, with a recommendation for a more conservative portfolio and an eye on purchasing assets at lower prices in the future./media:description>
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media:starRating count="619" average="5.00" min="1" max="5"/>
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entry>
id>yt:video:RbXUbCQHZu0/id>
yt:videoId>RbXUbCQHZu0/yt:videoId>
yt:channelId>UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/yt:channelId>
title>Tercer Trimestre 2023 - Resumen Trimestral de Mercados/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbXUbCQHZu0"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-02-20T20:47:00+00:00/published>
updated>2024-03-26T23:04:35+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Tercer Trimestre 2023 - Resumen Trimestral de Mercados/media:title>
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media:description>Joel Peña, Jefe de Desarrollo de Negocio en Latinoamérica para DoubleLine Capital, presenta la primera edición en español del resumen trimestral para la firma sobre la evolución de los mercados, eventos macroeconómicos mås relevantes a los inversores, y las valoraciones relativas entre la renta fija y la renta variable. Este video se grabó el 23 octubre 2023./media:description>
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title>The Goldilocks Economy: How Long Can it Last with Jeff Sherman of DoubleLine Capital/title>
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author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
/author>
published>2024-02-15T18:52:43+00:00/published>
updated>2024-03-01T03:18:59+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>The Goldilocks Economy: How Long Can it Last with Jeff Sherman of DoubleLine Capital/media:title>
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media:description>DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman joins Orion's Rusty Vanneman and Robyn Murray on their latest episode of The Weighing Machine Podcast chatting macro, inflation, rates, fixed income investing, ETFs, preparing for the presidential election and much more. Jeffrey Sherman shares his background as a mathematician turned investor and discusses his love for problem-solving in investing. He also discusses his experience starting DoubleLine Capital with Jeffrey Gundlach and his experience in building the company from scratch. Mr. Sherman provides his perspective on various topics including the Goldilocks economy, inflation, interest rates, fiscal spending, dollar outlook and future of fixed income ETFs./media:description>
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id>yt:video:DFEpKm014TM/id>
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title>Morris Chen Chats CRE on Fox Business/title>
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author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
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published>2024-02-14T23:42:55+00:00/published>
updated>2024-03-17T03:43:04+00:00/updated>
media:group>
media:title>Morris Chen Chats CRE on Fox Business/media:title>
media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/v/DFEpKm014TM?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="390"/>
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media:description>Morris Chen, Head of DoubleLine's CMBS & CRE Debt team, discusses his outlook for commercial real estate on Fox's Making Money with Charles Payne.
Read his latest CRE update, "Darkest Before the Dawn," here: https://doubleline.com/wp-content/uploads/DoubleLine-Commercial-Real-Estate-Update_2-6-24.pdf
Follow us on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap
Contact us: Info@doubleline.com
DoubleLine Capital: https://doubleline.com//media:description>
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id>yt:video:gavmLXOAoYU/id>
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title>Perspectives: EM Opportunities Amid Risky Geopolitics/title>
link rel="alternate" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gavmLXOAoYU"/>
author>
name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
uri>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5D18IyKtwxlSWVgEVfxBCQ/uri>
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published>2024-02-09T21:15:14+00:00/published>
updated>2024-02-23T11:17:16+00:00/updated>
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media:title>Perspectives: EM Opportunities Amid Risky Geopolitics/media:title>
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media:description>While armed conflicts and other geopolitical fault lines have made headlines the past two years, DoubleLine Global Bond Portfolio Managers Bill Campbell and Valerie Ho see (0:03) emerging markets having largely priced these risks and see opportunities in specific countries that have supportive monetary and fiscal policies amid global disinflation. This discussion was moderated Feb. 1, 2024, by DoubleLine Product Specialist Chris Stegemann.
1:12 More than 60 countries have elections scheduled in 2024. Ex-U.S., most of these appear on track to produce benign or status quo outcomes. Taiwan notably elected the presidential candidate of the independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party, a potential source of tension escalation with China. However, the DPP lost its legislative majority, which Bill Campbell says points to a continuation of policy status quo.
3:45 Valerie Ho describes the dynamics between financial markets and elections, including the wild card of âregime-changingâ outcomes at the ballot box and the possibility that fiscal stimulus and other policies enacted by governing political parties could disappoint expectations of ongoing market-friendly reforms.
5:52 Ms. Ho also discusses the lack of clarity over the possibility of a âfree and fairâ presidential election in Venezuela and U.S. sanctions policy toward the country. She weighs the coming presidential and congressional elections in Mexico. The incumbent party, Morena, is expected to retain the presidency and emerge with a simple majority in the lower house of Congress. However, Ms. Ho notes an outlier risk of Morena securing a two-thirds majority in both House and Senate. Such a result, she warns, would empower Morena to implement constitutional changes that could impair institutional safeguards of the country. Among the Latin American countries, DoubleLine is overweight Mexico as well as Brazil.
8:40 Mr. Campbell addresses âpositive external backdropsâ that are supportive of emerging market credit and currencies, including expanding fiscal stimulus; central banks in the process of pivoting from hawkish to dovish monetary policies; and global âdisinflation well under way.â
9:55 Reviewing DoubleLineâs ex-U.S., country-specific trades outside Latin American, Mr. Campbell singles out India, Indonesia and Poland for their âwell supported growth models, high real yields and institutional strengthâ in terms of rule of law, fiscal discipline and functional domestic governance./media:description>
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title>Channel 11: No Free Money on Wall Street/title>
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name>DoubleLine Capital/name>
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published>2024-02-07T00:06:14+00:00/published>
updated>2024-03-24T10:04:29+00:00/updated>
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media:title>Channel 11: No Free Money on Wall Street/media:title>
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media:description>DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda kicks off this episode of Channel 11 with a review of January 2024, calendar year 2023 and the consensus outlook for the U.S. economy (0:25). Then he covers his own outlooks for monetary policy, the U.S. economy and risks and opportunities in the markets for the year ahead. âThe expectation by economists is kind of a mixed bag with some people saying âsoft landing,â âall is clear,â and others still hanging on to their recession calls.â For those who subscribe to a soft-landing outlook, Mr. Shinoda warns about negative trends in employment in cyclical industries and rising credit card delinquencies. Among other topics treated by Mr. Shinoda:
3:35 The real federal funds rate (fed funds minus inflation), the debate over whether the real rate at 2% is restrictive and changing market expectations of the future level of the federal funds interest rate.
6:15 Mr. Shinodaâs view that, barring deterioration in economic data, the Federal Reserve will not cut policy rates until May or even until summer.
7:14 After two years of positive stock-bond correlation, negative correlation should resume, allowing bonds to provide protection against stock declines, thanks to inflation having cooled to lower levels.
8:14 While home prices and rents have contributed to consumer price inflation, these should become sources of disinflation in the future. What the Fed is still waiting to see is lower upward pressure on wages. Another possible source of upside inflation surprises: the rise of shipping costs due to global geopolitical tensions feeding into goods inflation.
10:50 The performance of fixed income sectors in 2023, aided by the context of falling inflation.
12:13 The performance of global equity markets in 2023 and January 2024, including the thin breadth of leadership in U.S. stocks and heavy bets on index futures chasing the market higher.
15:53 Broad weakness in commodities, including less-than-expected rises in energy prices in spite of conflict in the Middle East, all indicating slow global growth and a positive sign for bonds.
17:00 The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, warning investors not to chase this bond rally and the U.S. dollarâs relationship to the 10-year yield.
19:01 Fixed income performance in January 2024, including rallies in bank loans and once-unloved commercial mortgage-backed securities, the outlook for fixed income in the new year, and relative valuations between securitized credit and corporate credit. In the wake of âmonster ralliesâ in corporate credit, Agency residential mortgage-backed securities and AAA non-Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities offer the most attractive spreads relative to history.
21:01 A closer look into commercial real estate (CRE) values by sector (office, apartment, self-storage, industrial, mall) and a discussion of growing clarity in the wake of lower interest expense and a reopening of debt markets to the asset class.
Subscribe to Between the Lines on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/build-relation/newsletter-follow?entityUrn=7137929985142525952
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap | https://twitter.com/DLineChannel11
DoubleLine Capital: https://doubleline.com//media:description>
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DoubleLine Capital
01.08.2023 · 19:27:12 ···
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ···
14.05.2023 · 05:44:24 ··· 5 ··· ··· 54 ···
24.04.2024 · 00:20:38 ···
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ···
14.05.2023 · 05:44:24 ··· 5 ··· ··· 69 ···
1:: Disinflation? Reflation? Bonds for Both.
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 18.04.2024 · 18:51:15 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· In this April 16, 2024, webcast titled "Disinflation? Reflation? Bonds for Both," Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman provides valuable insights into the economic trends impacting the fixed income market. Mr. Sherman begins by examining macroeconomic conditions, highlighting global growth stories and emphasizing the pivotal role played by the U.S. economy. The discussion then shifts to the effects of economic data surprises on growth and the impact of cumulative inflation on consumer sentiment.
Throughout the webcast, Jeffrey Sherman explores the challenges posed by inflation and its influence on consumer outlooks within financial conditions. He delves into the factors driving bond market volatility, including the dynamics of inflation influenced by import and export prices. Labor market trends are also discussed, with a particular focus on the concerns arising from slowing wage growth above historical norms and its contribution to rising inflation worries across sectors.
Mr. Sherman provides insights into market performances, discussing winners and losers influenced by interest rate fluctuations. He emphasizes the importance of analyzing risk-reward profiles for effective navigation of different market segments.
Jeffrey offers valuable insights into economic trends, inflation, and fixed income investments, providing a comprehensive understanding of the current market landscape.
00:00: Considering multiple outcomes in the current market environment.
02:03: Analysis of GDP growth rate exceeding trend expectations.
05:07: Emphasis on the importance of the U.S. economy in driving global growth.
09:12: Discussion on the shift in PMI data for manufacturing indicating growth.
15:27: Insights into CPI data challenges faced by Jay Powell and the Fed.
19:57: Evaluation of current inflation levels and projections for the year.
22:52: Examination of job openings and average hourly earnings trends.
26:24: Analysis of the labor market situation compared to previous years.
30:10: Discussion on the impact of the pandemic on the labor market dynamics.
34:15: Concerns regarding the impact of stimulus on FICO scores.
40:44: Overview of market conditions and bond market volatility.
45:24: Evaluation of breakeven rates and bond market projections.
48:38: Importance of analyzing credit spreads and treasury markets.
50:31: Comparison of current spreads to historical trends in the marketplace.
51:01: Building blocks of risk premium and strategic considerations at DoubleLine
Follow Doubleline on X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap
Subscribe on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/doubleline-capital
Website: https://doubleline.com/
2:: Channel 11: The Land of Gains
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 12.04.2024 · 17:04:17 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· Ken Shinoda, Portfolio Manager at DoubleLine Capital and Chairman of the firm’s Structured Products Committee, covers the gains across equity, fixed income and commodity markets in March, subsequent pricing action and a noteworthy improvement in certain leading macro indicators, including Manufacturing PMI. As a result, Mr. Shinoda notes, “U.S. economists are forecasting stronger economic growth than they did about a year ago for the year 2024. And this is again all why equities have moved higher.”
Among other topics treated in this episode of Channel 11, recorded April 9, 2024, Mr. Shinoda discusses:
(2:31) The outlook on inflation, including the roll-off of positive base effects that had contributed to lower year-over-year inflation readings, potentially resulting in more stubborn inflation levels in the future, contributing to higher interest rates for longer.
(3:42) A rollover in housing rents, on the back of a “ton of new multi-family supply hitting the market,” a factor that should help ease pressure on headline and core inflation.
(4:23) Signs of lower wage and labor pressures, including a falling quits rate and reduced small-business hiring, perhaps presaging lower price pressures in the services sector of the economy. Mr. Shinoda also warns that these signs of weakness should give a moment of pause to people who are pricing in a “no landing” scenario for the economy.
(7:22) Recovering consumer sentiment.
(7:50) Among downside risks, the prospect of “higher-for-longer” borrowing rates. Higher rates already are putting the squeeze on commercial real estate; higher-for-longer could do the same to corporate borrowers, many of whom, due to the lack of bank lending, have turned to private lenders of floating-rate loans.
(9:27) Interest rates across the Treasury curve, the market pricing (as of the time of the episode recording) of future levels of the federal funds interest rate, and Mr. Shinoda’s sanguine view on the actual timing of rate cuts in 2024.
(12:45) Fixed income in March (positive across all major sectors), followed by a back-up in yields in the first part of April.
(14:01) What’s Cheap: DoubleLine’s report on which parts of the fixed income universe are attractive relative to others. Spread tightening, Ken Shinoda notes, which has driven big rallies in investment grade and high yield corporate bonds, and in emerging markets corporates, has been coming to securitization markets, with the exception of Agency mortgage-backed securities.
(16:40) Equity performance in March (broad gains, led by the Nikkei).
(17:49) Commodity performance (broad gains across energy, industrial metals, precious metals and agriculture). In particular, Mr. Shinoda calls out an Asia-driven surge in gold prices.
Follow Ken on X: https://twitter.com/DLineChannel11
Visit us on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/doubleline-capital
Website: https://doubleline.com/
3:: Jeffrey Gundlach on X Spaces: FOMC Reaction
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 21.03.2024 · 22:10:09 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine CEO-CIO Jeffrey Gundlach, following Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s press conference, shared his post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reaction with P&I Editor-in-Chief Jennifer Ablan. On Wednesday, March 20, the FOMC left interest rates unchanged but suggested the possibility of three rate cuts this year. The market had anticipated more cuts initially but has now aligned around three cuts. The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened, and stock markets surged following the announcement. Mr. Gundlach noted that since the Fed’s rhetorical pivot in November, credit-focused assets have outperformed Treasuries, with tightening spreads and shifting pricing trends across various credit ratings. This shift signals rising risks in high yield bonds and stock momentum trades.
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap | https://twitter.com/jennablan
LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/doubleline-capital
DoubleLine Capital: https://doubleline.com/
4:: Ken Shinoda on Bloomberg TV: FOMC Reaction
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 21.03.2024 · 19:58:38 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· Ken Shinoda of DoubleLine and Mona Mahajan of Edward Jones provide insightful analysis on the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate decision and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell’s remarks during a recent appearance on Bloomberg TV’s “The Close.” With the Fed contemplating rate adjustments while keeping a close eye on inflation trends, Shinoda and Mahajan foresee a prudent approach guided by economic indicators and consumer behavior.
Powell’s comments on inflation and potential rate cuts elicited a positive response from equity markets, while the bond market saw interest in steepening trades amid the Fed’s cautious stance on rate changes. Furthermore, the current recessionary pricing in commercial real estate presents an opportunity for investors, with cash investments offering attractive yields compared to long-term U.S. Treasuries.
Forecasts by the Fed indicate a gradual return of cash reserves into equities, prompting Shinoda and Mahajan to advocate for balanced-portfolio strategies. They emphasize the importance of including equities, bonds and potentially commercial real estate to diversify investment opportunities and adapt to the evolving financial landscape.
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap | https://twitter.com/DLineChannel11 | https://twitter.com/MonaMahajanView
LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/doubleline-capital
DoubleLine Capital: https://doubleline.com/
5:: Jeffrey Gundlach’s Macro and Market Update: Cave People
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 14.03.2024 · 17:27:49 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· In his webcast titled “Cave People” in reference to the philosopher Plato’s “Allegory of the Cave,” DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach (0:06) on March 12, 2023, briefly reprises his outlook on the federal debt spiral before reviewing other macroeconomic and market topics, including recessionary “storm clouds.” Notably, while the government’s establishment survey has resilient nonfarm payrolls, Mr. Gundlach marshals evidence showing “the rubric that there’s this booming employment economy is contradicted by other areas.” Among subjects addressed in the webcast, Mr. Gundlach covers:
3:54 - Federal deficit and national debt spiral
8:15 - Massive COVID-19-era monetary stimulus as explanation for the absence (to date) of recession
9:24 - Protracted inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
10:35 - Weakening consumer confidence
11:20 - U-3 unemployment rate exceeding 12-month moving average and nearing 36-month MA
12:36 - Questionable veracity of once-trustworthy economic statistics due to plunging survey response rates
15:32 - Recessionary divergence between cyclical and noncyclical employment
17:06 - Deteriorating hiring plans at small businesses
17:50 - Falling average weekly hours worked in manufacturing. “First they cut the hours, and then they cut the bodies.”
20:16 - Signs of stress among consumers, growing usage of credit cards and a 600-basis point rise to a “punishing” 23% in the average interest rate on credit card debt as forerunners of a future pullback in consumer spending
21:11 - Inflation as gauged by headline and core CPI
23:27 - Housing component of CPI versus the Zillow Rent Index and prospects of lower rents due to a construction boom in multifamily housing
25:11 - Inflation as gauged by headline and core PCE
27:47 - Inflation as gauged by export and import prices
28:18 - Commodity prices signaling weak global growth
29:09 - Review of the Treasury market and a warning regarding narrow credit spreads in high yield corporate bonds
32:58 - Year-to-date performance of the credit sectors of fixed income, including market pricing of future defaults in CCC corporate bonds
36:40 - Still-wide spreads on Agency mortgage-backed securities amid discount prices on these securities
38:01 - AAA spreads compared across non-Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), collateralized loan obligations and corporate bonds
38:31 - Attractive CMBS versus corporate bonds across AAA, A and BBB cohorts, with warnings against index investing in CMBS
39:27 - Emerging markets fixed income, which with the Federal Reserve’s Nov. 1, 2023, pivot “finally joined the risk asset party,” although Mr. Gundlach is awaiting a weaker dollar to support the sector
6:: Channel 11: Good Times Bad Times
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 07.03.2024 · 23:14:04 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda takes a look at the state of the markets and macro issues in his recap of February in addition to the economic outlook going forward, a potentially mixed bag summed up by the title of Led Zeppelin’s 1969 song “Good Times Bad Times.” He begins with a look at fixed income and its component segments for the month and year-to-date (equities kept rolling on) (00:33). In his monthly What Looks Cheap report (2:11), Mr. Shinoda looks at Agency MBS and what it will take for the asset class to narrow the gap with corporate bonds while noting the benefits of fixed income in balancing a portfolio.
He then turns to interest rates, the outlook for cuts this year and the inflationary picture that could impact moves by the Federal Reserve (5:51). Using past cycles, Mr. Shinoda thinks some market participants got carried away on scheduling and frequency, and he believes a first cut could happen sometime this summer, “which I think makes sense.” After a rundown of equities (11:37), commodities (12:18) and the U.S. dollar (13:18). Mr. Shinoda concludes with a review of economist forecasts for inflation and GDP in 2024 (13:35), including a breakdown of the components of the Leading Economic Index, which has been signaling recession for a long time.
7:: Jeffrey Gundlach Macro Insights
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 23.02.2024 · 17:19:40 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· In a comprehensive discussion filmed February 6, 2024, Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, addresses global economic and market challenges. He warns of rising inflation despite media downplaying, citing extensive central bank money printing and government interventions to tackle debt and income inequality. Gundlach expresses concerns about U.S. market resilience in future economic crises, linked to a weakening dollar, advocating for liquidity in downturns. He notes recession indicators like rising unemployment, declining work hours, and warns of ballooning deficits, potentially leading to interest expenses surpassing tax receipts. Gundlach predicts extreme policy responses, including radical rate cuts and increased money distribution, likely exacerbating inflation. Mr. Gundlach anticipates significant financial system changes to address income disparity and debt, advocating for Federal Reserve and debt management restructuring. Gundlach critiques government spending, discusses the dollar's future, and shares thoughts on digital currency, particularly bitcoin's supposed anonymity. Mentioning potential third-party candidates, he expresses interest in RFK Jr.'s candidacy despite disagreements. Finally, he voices fatigue with ongoing wars.
8:: Ken Shinoda on Mic'd Up! with ICM
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 21.02.2024 · 15:15:06 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine's Ken Shinoda, Head of Structured products, joins Peter Seyler, Senior Investment Specialist at Integrated Capital Management, and host of Mic'd Up! with ICM to discuss the current state of fixed income markets, focusing on opportunities and risks for investors. Mr. Shinoda highlights the potential in Agency MBS and CMBS thanks to the unique environment of low rates and low prepayment risk. Ken also emphasizes the benefits of an active strategy in MBS investing such as selecting different coupons and collateral, utilizing CMOs, and adding credit risk to portfolios.
9:: Trimestral de Mercados – Perspectivas para 2024
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 20.02.2024 · 22:01:49 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· Joel Pena, CFA, CAIA, Jefe de Latinoamérica para DoubleLine, presenta la segunda edicion español del resumen trimestral para la firma sobre la evolución de los mercados y eventos macroeconómicos más relevantes para los inversores.
Visítenos en nuestro sitio web http://doubleline.com
Para información adicional, puede contactarnos en info@doubleline.com.
10:: Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC's Closing Bell
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 20.02.2024 · 21:55:59 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, with CNBC's Scott Wapner and Bob Pisani live at Exchange ETF in Miami, warns of added volatility to the economic cycle and rising interest rates post-recession thanks to the fiscal response and U.S. government debt burden. Despite the recent CPI report affecting expectations for interest rate cuts, Gundlach doubts it will sway the Fed's decisions significantly. He also highlights concerns about stock market valuations and tech company concentration risk, advocating for equal-weighted investments over passive market-weighted ones. Gundlach stresses the importance of international investing scrutiny and expresses optimism about India's economy. The conversation shifts to investment allocation, with a recommendation for a more conservative portfolio and an eye on purchasing assets at lower prices in the future.
11:: Tercer Trimestre 2023 - Resumen Trimestral de Mercados
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 20.02.2024 · 20:47:00 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· Joel Peña, Jefe de Desarrollo de Negocio en Latinoamérica para DoubleLine Capital, presenta la primera edición en español del resumen trimestral para la firma sobre la evolución de los mercados, eventos macroeconómicos más relevantes a los inversores, y las valoraciones relativas entre la renta fija y la renta variable. Este video se grabó el 23 octubre 2023.
12:: The Goldilocks Economy: How Long Can it Last with Jeff Sherman of DoubleLine Capital
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 15.02.2024 · 18:52:43 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman joins Orion's Rusty Vanneman and Robyn Murray on their latest episode of The Weighing Machine Podcast chatting macro, inflation, rates, fixed income investing, ETFs, preparing for the presidential election and much more. Jeffrey Sherman shares his background as a mathematician turned investor and discusses his love for problem-solving in investing. He also discusses his experience starting DoubleLine Capital with Jeffrey Gundlach and his experience in building the company from scratch. Mr. Sherman provides his perspective on various topics including the Goldilocks economy, inflation, interest rates, fiscal spending, dollar outlook and future of fixed income ETFs.
13:: Morris Chen Chats CRE on Fox Business
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 14.02.2024 · 23:42:55 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· Morris Chen, Head of DoubleLine's CMBS & CRE Debt team, discusses his outlook for commercial real estate on Fox's Making Money with Charles Payne.
Read his latest CRE update, "Darkest Before the Dawn," here: https://doubleline.com/wp-content/uploads/DoubleLine-Commercial-Real-Estate-Update_2-6-24.pdf
Follow us on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap
Contact us: Info@doubleline.com
DoubleLine Capital: https://doubleline.com/
14:: Perspectives: EM Opportunities Amid Risky Geopolitics
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 09.02.2024 · 21:15:14 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· While armed conflicts and other geopolitical fault lines have made headlines the past two years, DoubleLine Global Bond Portfolio Managers Bill Campbell and Valerie Ho see (0:03) emerging markets having largely priced these risks and see opportunities in specific countries that have supportive monetary and fiscal policies amid global disinflation. This discussion was moderated Feb. 1, 2024, by DoubleLine Product Specialist Chris Stegemann.
1:12 More than 60 countries have elections scheduled in 2024. Ex-U.S., most of these appear on track to produce benign or status quo outcomes. Taiwan notably elected the presidential candidate of the independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party, a potential source of tension escalation with China. However, the DPP lost its legislative majority, which Bill Campbell says points to a continuation of policy status quo.
3:45 Valerie Ho describes the dynamics between financial markets and elections, including the wild card of “regime-changing” outcomes at the ballot box and the possibility that fiscal stimulus and other policies enacted by governing political parties could disappoint expectations of ongoing market-friendly reforms.
5:52 Ms. Ho also discusses the lack of clarity over the possibility of a “free and fair” presidential election in Venezuela and U.S. sanctions policy toward the country. She weighs the coming presidential and congressional elections in Mexico. The incumbent party, Morena, is expected to retain the presidency and emerge with a simple majority in the lower house of Congress. However, Ms. Ho notes an outlier risk of Morena securing a two-thirds majority in both House and Senate. Such a result, she warns, would empower Morena to implement constitutional changes that could impair institutional safeguards of the country. Among the Latin American countries, DoubleLine is overweight Mexico as well as Brazil.
8:40 Mr. Campbell addresses “positive external backdrops” that are supportive of emerging market credit and currencies, including expanding fiscal stimulus; central banks in the process of pivoting from hawkish to dovish monetary policies; and global “disinflation well under way.”
9:55 Reviewing DoubleLine’s ex-U.S., country-specific trades outside Latin American, Mr. Campbell singles out India, Indonesia and Poland for their “well supported growth models, high real yields and institutional strength” in terms of rule of law, fiscal discipline and functional domestic governance.
15:: Channel 11: No Free Money on Wall Street
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 07.02.2024 · 00:06:14 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda kicks off this episode of Channel 11 with a review of January 2024, calendar year 2023 and the consensus outlook for the U.S. economy (0:25). Then he covers his own outlooks for monetary policy, the U.S. economy and risks and opportunities in the markets for the year ahead. “The expectation by economists is kind of a mixed bag with some people saying ‘soft landing,’ ‘all is clear,’ and others still hanging on to their recession calls.” For those who subscribe to a soft-landing outlook, Mr. Shinoda warns about negative trends in employment in cyclical industries and rising credit card delinquencies. Among other topics treated by Mr. Shinoda:
3:35 The real federal funds rate (fed funds minus inflation), the debate over whether the real rate at 2% is restrictive and changing market expectations of the future level of the federal funds interest rate.
6:15 Mr. Shinoda’s view that, barring deterioration in economic data, the Federal Reserve will not cut policy rates until May or even until summer.
7:14 After two years of positive stock-bond correlation, negative correlation should resume, allowing bonds to provide protection against stock declines, thanks to inflation having cooled to lower levels.
8:14 While home prices and rents have contributed to consumer price inflation, these should become sources of disinflation in the future. What the Fed is still waiting to see is lower upward pressure on wages. Another possible source of upside inflation surprises: the rise of shipping costs due to global geopolitical tensions feeding into goods inflation.
10:50 The performance of fixed income sectors in 2023, aided by the context of falling inflation.
12:13 The performance of global equity markets in 2023 and January 2024, including the thin breadth of leadership in U.S. stocks and heavy bets on index futures chasing the market higher.
15:53 Broad weakness in commodities, including less-than-expected rises in energy prices in spite of conflict in the Middle East, all indicating slow global growth and a positive sign for bonds.
17:00 The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, warning investors not to chase this bond rally and the U.S. dollar’s relationship to the 10-year yield.
19:01 Fixed income performance in January 2024, including rallies in bank loans and once-unloved commercial mortgage-backed securities, the outlook for fixed income in the new year, and relative valuations between securitized credit and corporate credit. In the wake of “monster rallies” in corporate credit, Agency residential mortgage-backed securities and AAA non-Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities offer the most attractive spreads relative to history.
21:01 A closer look into commercial real estate (CRE) values by sector (office, apartment, self-storage, industrial, mall) and a discussion of growing clarity in the wake of lower interest expense and a reopening of debt markets to the asset class.
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16:: TSS Episode 142: Robert Cohen on Credit Selection and the Coming Default Cycle
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 22.06.2023 · 14:15:51 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· Robert Cohen, head of DoubleLine’s Global Developed Credit team, discusses navigating the waters of investment grade and high yield corporate bonds and leveraged loans as these markets enter the late stage of the economic and credit cycles. He speaks June 9, 2023, with DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau.
“We’re in a period, probably the greatest period in the last decade, where credit selection matters,” Mr. Cohen tells Messrs. Sherman and Lau (25:00). “It really hasn’t mattered for a long time. We’ve been in an environment where beta trades worked. So you liked an asset class, you liked high yield or you liked emerging markets, or you’re putting on these beta trades where you’re just allocating to a sector. Now we’re seeing great dispersion amongst the constituents of these asset classes, and we’re seeing that the dispersion of managers is widening because it’s all about credit selection.”
For corporate credit, Mr. Cohen defines a late cycle (3:01) as an environment in which “companies try to defend their balance sheet, so instead of raising money and borrowing more, they try to pay down their debt. That tends to be when credit conditions get tight, lenders are more strict or more discerning about the companies that they lend to. You often see credit metrics deteriorating in that environment.” These phenomena are underway, he says, amid a raft of warning signs portending recession such as the inverted Treasury yield curve and a negative year-over-year change in the Leading Economic Index. Credit markets are not pricing for a recession, but Mr. Cohen thinks the next one is coming in early 2024 if not by the end of 2023.
The next default cycle (5:47) has yet to begin in below-investment-grade corporate credit, although Mr. Cohen expects it to come with or without recession. With respect to investment grade corporates, rather than looking for the rare default, Cohen is on watch for changes in new issuance, leverage and risk-taking “as opposed to companies that are defending their balance sheets, borrowing less, paying down debt.”
The term “leveraged credit” (7:29) encompasses both high yield bonds (fixed rate) and bank debt (floating rate), both of which are below investment grade. “They work kind of in tandem with each other. There are often cases where borrowers will tap both markets for a senior secured term loan and an unsecured high yield bond,” he says. “Lately, really since the pandemic in 2020, you’re seeing borrowers tap the high yield market and loan market for both a secured loan and a secured bond.”
While leveraged credit defaults peaked at around 10% in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis (8:40), Mr. Cohen expects a lower peak in defaults if the next recession is less severe, but recovery rates on defaulted bank loans will be worse The reason? “In a prior cycle, maybe bank loans would recover 70% or 80% of their initial par value” post-default, he says. Due to a decadelong deterioration in protections for secured senior lenders, he expects “recoveries closer to 50% or even lower.” In contrast, high yield bonds (10:21), Mr. Cohen notes, appear in stronger shape than at anytime before. He cites growth in the BB share of the sector and the highest percentage of secured bonds in the sector’s history. “While the loan market has been getting worse in credit quality, the high yield market has actually been getting better in credit quality.”
The canaries in the leveraged-finance coal mine are B- bank loans (12:50), Mr. Cohen says. These represent 25% of outstanding bank debt. In the wake of 500 basis points added to the debt service on these floating-rate instruments by Federal Reserve rate hikes, Mr. Cohen says B- loans on average are at best free cash flow neutral. “So they’re kind of a ticking time bomb. If they’re free cash flow negative, they’re going to run out of cash soon enough. They’re also not refinanceable with today’s tight credit markets.” Overlevered companies “running into a maturity or running thin on cash” have some options. “We are seeing some equity sponsors in the LBO market put more capital into the deal and work with lenders to extend the runway.”...among other topics.
complete description can be found here: https://doubleline.com/markets-insights/tss-episode-142-robert-cohen-video/
17:: Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC Fed Day 6-14-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 16.06.2023 · 17:40:50 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine CEO, Jeffrey Gundlach joins CNBC Closing Bell host, Scott Wapner to discuss the latest Fed decision to pause and hold at the current interest rate. First aired June 14, 2023.
18:: PS Perspectives E9: Attractive Entry Point For Agency MBS
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 13.06.2023 · 19:00:39 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· In the latest installment of this monthly series, Product Specialists Phil Gioia, CFA, and Sam Nussbaum discuss the Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market. Taking focus in this episode: the sector's attractive relative value brought about by widening spreads relative to Treasuries. Based on a favorable outlook, the DoubleLine team has been increasing exposure to Agency MBS across portfolios. This episode was recorded June 7, 2023.
19:: Channel 11: Where’s the Recession?
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 13.06.2023 · 16:35:23 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· After his May review of equities (0:40), the dollar and commodities (2:12) and Treasury yields (3:26) DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda on June 8 eyes the yield landscape across the major fixed income asset classes (4:42) and finds investors still have time to enter these sectors and take advantage of attractive income propositions relative to interest rate and credit risk. Mr. Shinoda then reviews the expectations for the terminal rate on federal funds interest rate (6:09) and inflation expectations, with the market pricing a pause by Fed in June and a hike in July.
For the central theme of this episode of Channel 11, Mr. Shinoda asks (7:46), “Where is the recession that we've all been waiting for, that everyone has been forecasting?” Among the key reasons for the absence of recession in the U.S., he thinks, is the unprecedented level of fiscal stimulus, exceeding 30% of GDP, in 2020. “I think some of that money is still out there, and it's extending out when that recession may hit.” However, he warns that money is finite and running out.
Consumer spending represents two thirds of the U.S. economy. Citing a forecast by Deutsch Bank’s Jim Reid, Mr. Shinoda points out that household excess savings is on track to run out by the end of 2023 or in early 2024. Meanwhile, a variety of metrics point to slowing or contracting growth (10:47), including ISM PSM manufacturing and services surveys, the Leading Economic Indicator (of 10 leading indicators), ISM New Orders, tightening bank lending standards, weaker loan demand and surging interest rates on business loans. “I try not to be so dramatic about it,” but he advises thinking “about positioning. If we're going to go into recession, you want to own some longer-duration bonds, you want to maybe underweight certain parts of the risk markets.”
Turning to “what looks cheap” in terms of fixed income spreads vs. history (16:21), Mr. Shinoda points to AAA commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (Agency MBS). On the shorter end of the yield curve, Ken Shinoda sees investment grade bonds that are yielding 6%-7%. Just seems really good time to kind of lock those yields in case the Fed ever cuts and the gift of the T-bill is gone.”
20:: Jeffrey Gundlach’s Macro and Market Views at mid-2023-6-6
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 09.06.2023 · 22:23:51 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· In a June 6, 2023, webcast, DoubleLine Capital CEO and founder Jeffrey Gundlach starts (1:16) by exploring the “dust in the crevices of our financial institutions here in the United States and perhaps the general global world order.” Exhibits No. 1 and No. 2 that the country is heading for a dust-up (2:06) are the federal debt and the United States’ increasingly vulnerable mechanism of finance, debt-financed federal budget deficits. He notes that the federal government is already running deficits as a percentage of GDP that “should be scary relative to past recessions, and we’re not even in a recession yet.” This is the situation as Mr. Gundlach will show a recession appears likely later this year or in 2024.
The “real kicker” of this thesis (6:13), Mr. Gundlach says, is the amount of interest being paid on federal debt. In the wake of Federal Reserve increases of 525 basis points (bps) in official short-term rates and many rates along the Treasury curve up 400 bps, the burden of debt service has surged higher in dollar terms and as a percentage of GDP. Interest expense, Mr. Gundlach warns, “is going to swallow all of the tax receipts in the next few years if we stay on this track.” He predicts that the need for fiscal reform, including raising taxes and perhaps restructuring entitlement programs, is “going to become a political issue as part of the 2024 presidential campaign.”
Turning to the probability of recession in the U.S. (9:02), Mr. Gundlach reviews a range of indicators. Consumer expectations of the future, one of his favorite indicators, is one of the few indicators not to have given up the ghost. A broad range of other metrics, however, are flashing red. The year-over-year and sixth-month annualized change in the Leading Economic Index is “full-on recessionary.” Another recessionary indicator is the U.S. Treasury yield curve (10:51). The curve’s inversion indicates a recession likely is ahead. Mr. Gundlach is waiting for the curve to begin de-inverting, which might have begun, as a sign that the leading edge of recession is imminent.
In a sign of the onset of the last two recessions, Mr. Gundlach observes, the U.S. unemployment rate (15:15) exceeded its 12-month moving average. “That has happened now, but only by 4 bps. I don’t think we can call this a crossover in a really definitive way, but it does put us on watch.” This indicator (15:56) sometimes flashes false alerts. So DoubleLine also looks for confirmation in the form of a crossover of the unemployment rate’s 36-month moving average by its three-month moving average. That indicator still reads green.
Mr. Gundlach points to (17:23) a Federal Reserve survey showing a large increase in adults reporting deterioration in their financial situation versus a decrease in those reporting improvement in their financial condition. A study by Bank of America of households receiving unemployment benefits shows unemployment rising faster among higher-income groups than low- and middle-income groups, confirming Mr. Gundlach’s prediction of deterioration in middle-management jobs. Citing the same BofA study, he notices higher-income groups now are experiencing negative wage growth. Wage growth for the other two cohorts remains positive but is declining.
Banks have been tightening lending standards for business loans (20:26), a phenomenon that curbs loan growth and leads recessions. Interest paid on short-term loans to small businesses has doubled from the lows in 2020. As one of the reasons behind recent bank failures, Mr. Gundlach points out that “loan growth is contracting, and also the interest rate paid on short-term loans for small business has, thanks to the Fed’s actions, clearly exploded higher.” In 2023, bank failures, while limited to “only a couple of banks,” have occurred at large institutions, to the point that their combined asset value is slightly above 2% of GDP (20:23). Over the last century, when bank failures exceeded that level, they preceded the Great Depression, the savings and loan crisis “in the late 1980s and early ’90s, and then the Global Financial Crisis. We’re pretty close to the level as a percentage of GDP as those past two experiences that led to financial distress and, of course, significant recessions.”...among other topics.
To see the full description on the DoubleLine.com website, click here: https://doubleline.com/markets-insights/tr-webcast-macro-mid-2023-6-6/
21:: TSS Episode 141: Aon Investments’ Russ Ivinjack on Manager Selection and Portfolio Construction
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 08.06.2023 · 15:06:13 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· Russ Ivinjack, Global Chief Investment Officer of Aon Investments, discusses, among other topics, his management of Aon’s investment manager research teams, the discipline of selecting active managers and investment strategies, and the strategic and tactical dimensions of building portfolios to perform under a range of macroeconomic outcomes. The latter include a “dark-sky” scenario more severe than the Global Financial Crisis. DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman and Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau spoke with Mr. Ivinjack on May 23, 2023.
In his role as an outsource CIO to pension plans and other institutions (4:23), Mr. Ivinjack assesses how much volatility, illiquidity and other forms of risk the client is willing to bear in the portfolio as a starting point for building a strategic policy. The next level is how to implement the strategy in the asset classes suited to the client. Mr. Ivinjack notably oversees manager research teams in equities, fixed income, liquid alternatives, private equity, infrastructure and private credit.
In terms of the current opportunity set (9:21), Mr. Ivinjack notes that in the wake of the spike in interest rates in 2022, the markets offer “a better base to build portfolios from,” with “cash earning 5% and core fixed earning about the same.” He expresses concern that, amid higher inflation than experienced in decades, economic data used to guide investing “is far less reliable than it was just three, four years ago. I joke that we used to worry about the 0.1% difference in GDP or inflation, and now we’re worrying about one, two, or three percentage point differences in the reads that come out, and that causes much more volatility in portfolios.”
This necessitates (10:26) “numerous strategic studies with our clients, walking through those scenarios we call blue-sky scenarios, recessionary scenarios, stagflation or even dark-sky scenarios so they can gauge what’s the right portfolio to implement.” He defines a dark-sky scenario as “more or less a depression” involving “significant negative growth,” causing “significant impairment on financial assets in clients’ portfolios over a fairly short period of time.”
Mr. Ivinjack describes his teams (21:44) as “very disciplined about rebalancing, so we set targets,” rebalancing back within allocation ranges when they are exceeded. This is key in the direction of cash flows. “And we’re market aware about where valuations are. We will take that into account in terms of where to deploy new cash coming or where to take money out. That disciplined, I would say somewhat boring, approach has worked incredibly well over the last 10 years.”
Another issue Mr. Ivinjack calls to investors’ attention (23:57) is the concentration of risk in today’s financial markets. “If you pull back the S&P 500, it’s far more concentrated than what is five or 10 years ago. Pull back the investment-grade indices, you’ll see they’re more concentrated than they were years ago. Investors need to recognize where their unintended risks lie. People like to wring their hands about a 25 basis point position in certain securities when, frankly, their exposure to Apple is five times that, 10 times that in some cases.”
On the subject of manager research and hiring managers (25:26), he looks for stable firms, philosophy and approach, “but the key thing is they’re matching up with their philosophy and process and what their advantage is – so making sure those two stick together. Obviously, we spend a lot of time understanding the people who manage the money. It’s a lot of time on Zoom calls, in-person meetings. It’s monitoring portfolios even before we invest with them to know what they’re saying matches their actual actions.”
Managing liquidity (31:08), Mr. Ivinjack says, has become much more challenging in today’s environment. “Many clients or investors thought the fixed income markets are always super liquid, and they could tap that market for liquidity to meet their needs on a monthly, quarterly basis. What we’ve observed is as we need to raise money, the fixed income markets aren’t always as liquid.”
22:: Floating Rate Webcast: Market Macro and the Outlook for Bank Loans
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 01.06.2023 · 18:09:54 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· Robert Cohen, Director of DoubleLine’s Global Developed Credit team, talks market macro with a look at interest rates and a possibly too rosy prediction of Federal Reserve cuts, inflation and a yet-resilient job market (2:34) and recession-watch data (4:30). Mr. Cohen then turns to the outlook for bank loans, including how their short duration is benefiting from today’s rates environment (6:11), how the asset class holds up in different potential scenarios (8:15), bank loans’ recent performance versus high yield credit (10:33) and the current relative value of loans compared to other asset classes (12:19). Mr. Cohen concludes by noting bank loans’ historically consistent positive returns. This webcast was recorded May 23, 2023.
23:: TSS Episode 140: StoneX’s Vincent Deluard on Recession Skepticism, Not Balancing the Books and more
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 25.05.2023 · 16:29:15 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman and Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau welcome StoneX Director of Macro Global Strategy Vincent Deluard to The Sherman Show. Mr. Deluard begins the episode by sharing how his passion for collecting actual paper money coins before getting into his career in finance, working at StoneX and teaching at Saint Mary’s College. Messrs. Sherman, Lau and Deluard then get into, among other topics, Mr. Deluard’s nonconsensus calls including his recession doubts (8:11), why he feels a certain level of inflation is accretive to the economy (11:46), why he thinks the government doesn’t need to balance its books (14:59) and where the 2% target for inflation comes from (19:42). On the topic of the federal government balancing the books, Mr. Deluard says, “I’m not arguing that we should just spend the way like Venezuela or Argentina does, but the notion that we need to balance the books is wrong. At the end of the day, it’s a tradeoff.”
The three also discuss how the Fed’s QE policy led to its current tough talk on inflation (24:32), why Mr. Deluard believes we can sidestep recession in 2023 (28:34), why we should let capitalism work out the banking dilemma (32:15) and Mr. Deluard’s thoughts on allocation (34:28), including commodity positioning (38:49) and lightening up on duration (41:56). This episode was recorded May 22, 2023.
24:: Income Webcast - MACRO 5-16-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 24.05.2023 · 14:43:35 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Ken Shinoda and Morris Chen take a look at macro issues facing the markets and sector opportunities in this webcast recorded May 16, 2023. Mr. Shinoda begins by breaking down performance in the fixed income markets, noting that it has been a decent year so far. He reviews yields across sectors, discusses the bond market’s expectation for an interest rate cut this year (5:40) and gets into what’s cheap out there (7:36). Mr. Shinoda then dives into the big macro topic: inflation (11:57). He looks at the three core components of the current inflation picture, and how undersupply in housing and strong wages are complicating the Fed’s inflation fight. Mr. Shinoda then goes over how fallout from the banking crisis could impact prospects for a recession (20:21).
Mr. Chen takes over to run through positioning opportunities in securitized credit, particularly in commercial real estate (22:32).
25:: Jeffrey Sherman on BBGTV 5-18-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 23.05.2023 · 13:11:28 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine Deputy CIO, Jeffrey Sherman joins Bloomberg TV for an interview. Originally aired on May 18, 2023.
26:: Bill Campbell on Yahoo Finance 5-12-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 18.05.2023 · 14:13:21 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine portfolio manager, Bill Campbell on Yahoo Finance talks about the dollar dominance and the decline of that U.S. Dollar. The interview first aired on May 12, 2023.
27:: TSS Episode 139: J.P. Morgan’s Michael Feroli on Fed’s One Tool, Separation Principle and more
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 11.05.2023 · 15:35:02 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman and Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau welcome J.P. Morgan Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli to The Sherman Show. Mr. Feroli kicks the episode off by recounting his educational transition from philosophy to finance and his employment transition from working at the Federal Reserve Board, when Alan Greenspan was chair and Ben Bernanke was a board governor, to the private sector for J.P. Morgan (2:53). Mr. Feroli then addresses topics including the potential disconnect between financial markets and the real economy (5:42), the lag this cycle between the Fed’s interest rate hikes and their impact on the labor market (10:03), the interplay of financial stability and monetary policy in the Fed’s response to the banking crisis (17:03) and the possibility for immaculate (painless) disinflation (20:09). “Can we get back to 2% without a recession?” Mr. Feroli asks in regard to hitting the Fed’s annual inflation target. “The models would say probably not.”
Messrs. Sherman, Lau and Feroli also discuss, among other topics, what a slowdown in credit could mean for smaller businesses (28:06), fractional reserve and narrow banking systems (32:02), the hunt for a magic regressor signaling recession (41:27) and Mr. Feroli’s concerns over how the debt-ceiling standoff in Washington could go down differently this time – in a bad way (44:32). This episode was recorded May 4, 2023.
28:: PS Perspectives E8: Fixed Income Markets
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 09.05.2023 · 00:15:30 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· In the latest installment of this monthly series, Product Specialists Corey Clermont, CFP®, and Sam Nussbaum discuss the fixed income markets year-to-date. Taking focus in this episode: return drivers pre- and post-regional bank concerns, a review of the U.S. Treasury curve and credit spreads, relative value across fixed income asset classes and the DoubleLine team’s positioning ideas for intermediate-term fixed income portfolios.
29:: Channel 11: Another One Bites the Dust
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 08.05.2023 · 17:16:36 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· In his review of markets and macro for the month of April 2023, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda on April 4 tells investors and advisers to “respect the data. The data continues to weaken. The Fed hiked again. The banks probably won't be lending as much. We think that long-term bonds can do OK in that environment of slowing growth. I know the T-bill is really cheap, and everyone loves it. I own some, you own some, we all own some: T-bills and chill. But make sure you have some longer-duration exposure to protect your portfolio into more volatility out there.”
Mr. Shinoda titled this episode (0:28) of the Channel 11 podcast “Another One Bites the Dust” in reference to the latest in a series of bank failures in the U.S. He begins with a review of U.S. stock performance in April (0:57), including the breakdown by sectors (1:40). He then reviews the performances of currencies (2:05), commodities (2:30) and fixed income (3:00). “Pretty amazing: The Fed hikes rates, and the two-year Treasury falls in yield,” Mr. Shinoda comments. “The market is basically telling (Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell) Jay that he probably shouldn’t have hiked” on May 3.
On the positive side of the inflation front, U.S. breakevens based on Treasuries and TIPS (6:18) indicate that inflation expectations are anchored. However, in his review of core CPI (7:04), he singles out shelter and services ex-shelter as the remaining drivers of inflation. “The problem is that those two numbers could potentially be sticky. On the shelter side, housing remains robust. Home prices actually just ticked up nationwide. What's happening is buyers are priced out of the purchase market because mortgage rates are so high, and so they're renting. So rental demand remains pretty robust.” Another negative (8:14) is wage growth, running off the highs but still elevated.
On recession watch (9:37), Mr. Shinoda reviews the Leading Economic Index, PMI surveys, the inversion of the 10-year U.S. Treasury relative to the three-month T-bill (a favorite indicator of Fed Chair Powell) and a spiking savings rate. He also notes that the labor market and wage growth (12:48) do not appear to be cooling.
Mr. Shinoda turns to banking, surveying the relationship, or the lack of one, between bank lending standards and inflation (14:11), and the flight of bank deposits to investments offering much greater yields over checking and savings accounts. Commenting on regional bank customers, he warns, “The more and more they open their newspaper, they open their Instagram, they open their Twitter, and they see all these headlines of another bank going under, and another bank goes under. I think that it's only going to intensify this concern and pressure. And you may see more deposit flight.”
Returning to fixed income (20:03), he notes that bank loans look “cheap relative to high yield, but for a reason: We believe a lot of the risks have moved from the high yield market into the bank loan market. On the low-risk end of the spectrum, I think that Agency mortgage-backed securities and AAA commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are two of the cheaper assets. On the riskier part of the market, you can go into places like bank loans, CMBS and collateralized loan obligations. They have risk, they will be volatile. If you do your credit work, I think you still can find opportunities, especially relative to equities.”
Mr. Shinoda completes this episode with a closer look at (24:26) equities. He reviews the risk of overly optimistic market expectations of earnings, seasonal stock-selling tactics (25:07), contrarian trades against a heavy net short position against stocks (26:14) and the relative cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios by sector of the U.S. and European large-cap stock markets (26:29).
30:: Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC Closing Bell 5-3-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 05.05.2023 · 19:30:05 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· DoubleLine CEO, Jeffrey Gundlach interviewed on CNBC Closing Bell with Scott Wapner following the FED quarter point rate hike. Originally aired May 3, 2023.
31:: TSS Episode 138: Morris Chen on Opportunities in Commercial Real Estate Debt
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 27.04.2023 · 18:42:14 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
32:: Jeffrey Sherman on Raise Your Average: The Banking Crisis, Recession Watch and Smart AI
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 26.04.2023 · 21:41:05 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
33:: PS Perspectives E7: Emerging Market Debt
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 17.04.2023 · 21:23:17 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
34:: TSS Episode 137: Ken Shinoda on Mortgage Investing and the Housing Market
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 13.04.2023 · 18:28:01 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
35:: DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman on CNBC OverTime 4-12-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 13.04.2023 · 15:54:10 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
36:: Channel 11: Turning Bearish
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 06.04.2023 · 17:59:10 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
37:: DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman on The Claman Countdown 3-23-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 31.03.2023 · 17:13:18 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
38:: TSS Episode 136: GeoWealth’s Jen Wing on TAMPs, Serving RIAs and Customized Portfolio Models
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 30.03.2023 · 23:38:29 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
39:: Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC Closing Bell 3-27-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 28.03.2023 · 22:12:58 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
40:: Ken Shinoda on The Julia La Roche Show Podcast 3-22-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 27.03.2023 · 15:37:12 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
41:: PS Perspectives E6: Commercial Real Estate with Portfolio Manager Morris Chen
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 22.03.2023 · 21:49:22 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
42:: Jeffrey Sherman on BBGTV 3-17-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 21.03.2023 · 22:14:11 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
43:: Total Return Macro Webcast: Survivor 3-7-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 17.03.2023 · 19:49:32 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
44:: TSS Episode 135: Fairlead’s Katie Stockton Charts a Path Into Technical Analysis
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 16.03.2023 · 15:37:19 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
45:: Jeffrey Gundlach Talks the Banking Crisis Fallout on CNBC 3-13-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 15.03.2023 · 17:16:13 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
46:: Ch 11 E28: BofA Securities’ Chris Flanagan on Base and Downside Outlooks and more
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 09.03.2023 · 17:55:39 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
47:: Channel 11: Beware the Noise
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 07.03.2023 · 22:41:00 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
48:: Luz Padilla on Yahoo Finance 2-22-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 03.03.2023 · 20:32:23 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
49:: Jeffrey Gundlach on Yahoo Finance 2-22-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 02.03.2023 · 17:20:10 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
50:: TSS Episode 134: Capital Allocators’ Ted Seides on Literal Rich Uncles, Platforming CIOs and more
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 02.03.2023 · 15:27:37 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
51:: Strategic Commodity - Macro 2-21-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 24.02.2023 · 00:19:35 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
52:: Ken Shinoda on Bloomberg TV 2-10-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 22.02.2023 · 17:24:02 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
53:: TSS Episode 133: Quadratic’s Nancy Davis on Selling Vol, Yield Curve Hand Signals and Deflation
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 17.02.2023 · 23:47:00 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
54:: Jeffrey Sherman on Bloomberg TV 2-6-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 09.02.2023 · 18:23:02 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
55:: Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC CBOT following FOMC Meeting 2-1-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 03.02.2023 · 16:09:26 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
56:: Ch 11 News S3 E11: Goldilocks Is (Probably) Just a Fairy Tale
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 31.01.2023 · 20:36:09 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
57:: TSS Episode 132: Jeff Mayberry’s 2022 Score Card and 2023 Lineup
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 26.01.2023 · 14:52:02 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
58:: Jeffrey Gundlach, UBS: An Unprecedented Opportunity: Is 2023 the Year of Bonds? 1-6-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 23.01.2023 · 22:19:37 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
59:: TSS Episode 131: Charles Payne on His Unique Career, Informed Investors and a Wayward Fed
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 19.01.2023 · 17:58:49 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
60:: DoubleLine Round Table Prime, 2023 - Part 3: Best Investment Ideas 1-4-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 13.01.2023 · 16:53:25 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
61:: Just Markets Webcast: "What's Going On?" 1-10-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 13.01.2023 · 00:42:35 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
62:: DoubleLine Round Table Prime, 2023 - Part 2: Market Outlooks 1-4-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 12.01.2023 · 16:14:04 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
63:: Bill Campbell on CNBC Closing Bell 12-30-22
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 11.01.2023 · 22:57:35 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
64:: DoubleLine Round Table Prime, 2023 - Part 1: Macroeconomic State of Play 1-4-23
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 11.01.2023 · 16:58:44 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
65:: Jeffrey Sherman on CNBC, Outlook 2023 12-20-22
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 05.01.2023 · 22:33:57 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
66:: DoubleLine Macro Assets 23 for 2023
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 27.12.2022 · 22:45:05 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
67:: Ch 11 News S3 E10 What Now? Allocating Equities in the Wake of a Bloody 2022
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 21.12.2022 · 23:04:34 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
68:: Jeffrey Gundlach with David Rosenberg 10-11-22 Podcast
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 04.11.2022 · 00:00:00 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
69:: TSS Episode 123: Masterworks’ Allen Sukholitsky on Adding Art to Your Portfolio
01.01.1970 · 01:00:00 ··· 01.09.2022 · 00:00:00 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···